Monday, June 22, 2015

Interesting decision situation under uncertainty

You win the deal only when you win at least two consecutive negotiations. The probability of your winning against F is 0.8 and against C is 0.1. Which one is better for winning the deal CFC or FCF?

The spreadsheet is available at
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B6PHuk6I5SxbSGpyaHZ3MEl5Wm8/view?usp=sharing. 

1 comment:

  1. Vivek Deshmukh28 July, 2015

    CFC will be better for winning the deal as compared to FCF using Monte Carlo simulation.

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